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TECHNOCRACY AI CANADA INC. · MONTANA 2026 · FULL PRIMARY → GENERAL ELECTION INTELLIGENCE BUILD
TECHNOCRACY.USA
Verified / post-primary master · audited 15 August 2026

Montana 2026
Electoral Cascade & District Intelligence

One integrated system covering the statewide electorate, U.S. Senate, both U.S. House districts, Public Service Commission Districts 1 and 5, all 50 Senate district profiles and all 100 House districts.

Current-field standard. The June 2 primary is complete. Montana's November ballot-certification deadline is Aug. 20, so the candidate field is current but not falsely labeled final.
DISTRICT AUDIT: 100/100 House districts and 50/50 Senate profiles are present. The exact 25 Senate districts scheduled in 2026 are separated from the 25 off-cycle districts.
StateHistoryPipelineU.S. SenateU.S. HousePSC50 Senate100 HouseJudiciaryLocalAge/TurnoutVotingCascadeMethodAuditSources
01 · TOTAL ELECTORATE

Montana electorate funnel

1.145M2025 resident populationCensus Vintage 2025
799,8492024 registeredOfficial canvass
612,4232024 ballots castOfficial canvass
76.57%2024 turnoutBallots / registered
Resident population
1.145M
Registered
799,849
Ballots
612,423
Riding rule: Montana uses 100 House districts and 50 Senate districts. Each Senate district is composed of two House districts, so exact 2024 presidential baselines can be aggregated without inventing geography.
02 · PREVIOUS ELECTIONS / TURNAROUND

Statewide swing and ticket split

RaceDemocraticRepublicanSignal
2024 PresidentHarris 231,906Trump 352,079R +120,173
2024 U.S. SenateTester 276,305Sheehy 319,682R +43,377 · candidate-specific divergence
2024 MT-01Tranel 143,783Zinke 168,529R +24,746
03 · 2026 PIPELINE

June primary → Aug. 20 certification → November

Primary
General candidate filings
Ballot certification
General Election
04 · U.S. SENATE

Current filed general field

Republican · Kurt AlmeLibertarian · Kyle AustinDemocratic · Alani BankheadIndependent · Seth BodnarWrite-in · Jami Dee Woodman

Kurt Alme, Kyle Austin and Alani Bankhead are primary nominees; Seth Bodnar is filed Independent; Jami Dee Woodman is a filed write-in in the current portal.

05 · U.S. HOUSE

Both congressional districts

MT-01

Republican · Aaron FlintDemocratic · Sam ForstagLibertarian · Nick Sheedy

MT-02

Republican · Troy DowningDemocratic · Brian J MillerLibertarian · Patrick McCrackenIndependent · Michael D Eisenhauer
06 · PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION

Districts 1 and 5

PSC 1

Democratic · Angeline CheekRepublican · Jeff Pattison

PSC 5

Republican · Annie BukacekDemocratic · Kevin Hamm
07 · STATE SENATE

50 profiles · 25 seats on the 2026 ballot

25 ACTIVE · 25 OFF-CYCLE
Active districts: 1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 18, 19, 22, 23, 25, 28, 29, 31, 32, 34, 41, 42, 43, 48, 49, 50. Off-cycle districts remain context only; no opponent is invented.
Senate District 1CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDSteve Gunderson (R) · Jonathan Russell Jameson (D)2024 presidential baseline R+54.9 · Safe baselineR+54.9Safe baseline
State Senate District 1Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+54.9Harris 2,822 · Trump 10,029
13,136Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Steve Gunderson2,971 votes · 53.35% of party candidate votes
Jonathan Russell Jameson1,276 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Republican · Steve GundersonDemocratic · Jonathan Russell Jameson
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 2VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+1.6R+1.6Off-cycle
State Senate District 24-year term
R+1.6Harris 6,388 · Trump 6,609
HD 3 + HD 4Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline
Senate District 3VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+39.6R+39.6Off-cycle
State Senate District 34-year term
R+39.6Harris 4,100 · Trump 9,732
HD 5 + HD 6Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline
Senate District 4CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDAmy Regier (R) · Kyle Waterman (D)2024 presidential baseline R+32.2 · Safe baselineR+32.2Safe baseline
State Senate District 4Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+32.2Harris 3,476 · Trump 6,931
10,736Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Amy Regier2,902 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Kyle Waterman1,506 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Republican · Amy RegierDemocratic · Kyle Waterman
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 5VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+46.4R+46.4Off-cycle
State Senate District 54-year term
R+46.4Harris 3,259 · Trump 9,176
HD 9 + HD 10Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline
Senate District 6CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDPatrick Fitzpatrick (D) · Mark Noland (R)2024 presidential baseline R+42.8 · Safe baselineR+42.8Safe baseline
State Senate District 6Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+42.8Harris 4,026 · Trump 10,285
14,614Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Patrick Fitzpatrick1,753 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Mark Noland4,549 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Patrick FitzpatrickRepublican · Mark Noland
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 7VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+40.6R+40.6Off-cycle
State Senate District 74-year term
R+40.6Harris 3,739 · Trump 9,102
HD 13 + HD 14Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline
Senate District 8CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDChristopher Paul Buckles (R) · Tyson T Running Wolf (D)2024 presidential baseline D+9.1 · CompetitiveD+9.1Competitive
State Senate District 8Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
D+9.1Harris 4,433 · Trump 3,665
8,419Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Christopher Paul Buckles1,089 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Tyson T Running Wolf1,602 votes · 73.86% of party candidate votes
Republican · Christopher Paul BucklesDemocratic · Tyson T Running Wolf
2024 baseline sensitivity
Competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 9CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDNoy Holland (D) · Llew Jones (R) · Nate White (Write-in)2024 presidential baseline R+47.6 · Safe baselineR+47.6Safe baseline
State Senate District 9Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+47.6Harris 2,995 · Trump 8,807
12,198Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Noy Holland974 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Llew Jones3,286 votes · 52.01% of party candidate votes
Nate WhiteWrite-in · no partisan primary
Democratic · Noy HollandRepublican · Llew JonesWrite-in · Nate White
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 10CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJessica Dyrdahl (R) · Margaret Mitchell (D)2024 presidential baseline R+5.6 · Highly competitiveR+5.6Highly competitive
State Senate District 10Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+5.6Harris 3,825 · Trump 4,299
8,439Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jessica Dyrdahl1,166 votes · 56.38% of party candidate votes
Margaret Mitchell1,801 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Republican · Jessica DyrdahlDemocratic · Margaret Mitchell
2024 baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 11CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDSteven Galloway (R) · Valynda Holland (D)2024 presidential baseline R+19.9 · Lean / watchR+19.9Lean / watch
State Senate District 11Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+19.9Harris 3,443 · Trump 5,224
8,934Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Steven Galloway1,988 votes · 66.60% of party candidate votes
Valynda Holland941 votes · 59.90% of party candidate votes
Republican · Steven GallowayDemocratic · Valynda Holland
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 12CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMindy Leach (D) · George Nikolakakos (R)2024 presidential baseline R+15.4 · Lean / watchR+15.4Lean / watch
State Senate District 12Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+15.4Harris 4,007 · Trump 5,519
9,798Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Mindy Leach1,674 votes · 84.89% of party candidate votes
George Nikolakakos1,992 votes · 67.94% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Mindy LeachRepublican · George Nikolakakos
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 13VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+43.2R+43.2Off-cycle
State Senate District 134-year term
R+43.2Harris 3,238 · Trump 8,438
HD 25 + HD 26Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline
Senate District 14CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDEric Albus (R) · Blake Borst (D)2024 presidential baseline R+39.6 · Safe baselineR+39.6Safe baseline
State Senate District 14Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+39.6Harris 2,832 · Trump 6,793
9,990Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Eric Albus2,495 votes · 64.16% of party candidate votes
Blake Borst1,442 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Republican · Eric AlbusDemocratic · Blake Borst
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 15VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+58.3R+58.3Off-cycle
State Senate District 154-year term
R+58.3Harris 2,112 · Trump 8,485
HD 29 + HD 30Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline
Senate District 16VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline D+4.6D+4.6Off-cycle
State Senate District 164-year term
D+4.6Harris 3,778 · Trump 3,430
HD 31 + HD 32Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive
Senate District 17VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+68.5R+68.5Off-cycle
State Senate District 174-year term
R+68.5Harris 1,742 · Trump 9,938
HD 33 + HD 34Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline
Senate District 18CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDGreg Kmetz (R) · Stan Taylor (D)2024 presidential baseline R+55.7 · Safe baselineR+55.7Safe baseline
State Senate District 18Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+55.7Harris 2,335 · Trump 8,646
11,329Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Greg Kmetz2,972 votes · 62.05% of party candidate votes
Stan Taylor956 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Republican · Greg KmetzDemocratic · Stan Taylor
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 19CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDDeanna J Daigrepont (D) · Chris Rindal (R)2024 presidential baseline R+59.6 · Safe baselineR+59.6Safe baseline
State Senate District 19Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+59.6Harris 2,500 · Trump 10,378
13,222Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Deanna J Daigrepont974 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Chris Rindal3,232 votes · 53.94% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Deanna J DaigrepontRepublican · Chris Rindal
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 20VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+41.0R+41.0Off-cycle
State Senate District 204-year term
R+41.0Harris 2,817 · Trump 6,953
HD 39 + HD 40Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline
Senate District 21VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+2.2R+2.2Off-cycle
State Senate District 214-year term
R+2.2Harris 3,200 · Trump 3,347
HD 41 + HD 42Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline
Senate District 22CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDDaniel Zolnikov (R) · Elijah Tidswell (Write-in) · Cari Lynn Olson (Write-in)2024 presidential baseline R+30.5 · Safe baselineR+30.5Safe baseline
State Senate District 22Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+30.5Harris 3,496 · Trump 6,714
10,566Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Daniel Zolnikov2,587 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Elijah TidswellWrite-in · no partisan primary
Cari Lynn OlsonWrite-in · no partisan primary
Republican · Daniel ZolnikovWrite-in · Elijah TidswellWrite-in · Cari Lynn Olson
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 23CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDEmma Kerr-Carpenter (D) · Joanna Oblander (R)2024 presidential baseline D+1.1 · Toss-up baselineD+1.1Toss-up baseline
State Senate District 23Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
D+1.1Harris 4,870 · Trump 4,761
9,958Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Emma Kerr-Carpenter2,117 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Joanna Oblander1,777 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Emma Kerr-CarpenterRepublican · Joanna Oblander
2024 baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 24VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+5.4R+5.4Off-cycle
State Senate District 244-year term
R+5.4Harris 3,732 · Trump 4,176
HD 47 + HD 48Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive
Senate District 25CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJulie Hippler (D) · Dennis Lenz (R)2024 presidential baseline R+24.1 · LikelyR+24.1Likely
State Senate District 25Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+24.1Harris 4,180 · Trump 6,952
11,496Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Julie Hippler1,774 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Dennis Lenz2,576 votes · 82.54% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Julie HipplerRepublican · Dennis Lenz
2024 baseline sensitivity
Likely

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 26VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+20.9R+20.9Off-cycle
State Senate District 264-year term
R+20.9Harris 4,764 · Trump 7,386
HD 51 + HD 52Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Likely
Senate District 27VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+45.0R+45.0Off-cycle
State Senate District 274-year term
R+45.0Harris 3,066 · Trump 8,365
HD 53 + HD 54Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline
Senate District 28CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDKelly Hale (D) · Forrest J Mandeville (R)2024 presidential baseline R+46.5 · Safe baselineR+46.5Safe baseline
State Senate District 28Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+46.5Harris 3,653 · Trump 10,367
14,429Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Kelly Hale1,269 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Forrest J Mandeville5,087 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Kelly HaleRepublican · Forrest J Mandeville
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 29CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJason Gunderson (R) · Scott Rosenzweig (D)2024 presidential baseline D+2.2 · Toss-up baselineD+2.2Toss-up baseline
State Senate District 29Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
D+2.2Harris 7,333 · Trump 7,003
14,795Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jason Gunderson2,417 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Scott Rosenzweig3,203 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Republican · Jason GundersonDemocratic · Scott Rosenzweig
2024 baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 30VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline D+14.1D+14.1Off-cycle
State Senate District 304-year term
D+14.1Harris 8,117 · Trump 6,063
HD 59 + HD 60Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch
Senate District 31CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDRichard Aungier (R) · Kathleen Williams (D)2024 presidential baseline D+18.0 · Lean / watchD+18.0Lean / watch
State Senate District 31Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
D+18.0Harris 5,850 · Trump 4,012
10,239Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Richard Aungier898 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Kathleen Williams1,965 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Republican · Richard AungierDemocratic · Kathleen Williams
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 32CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDNeal Ganser (R) · Kelly Kortum (D)2024 presidential baseline D+8.6 · CompetitiveD+8.6Competitive
State Senate District 32Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
D+8.6Harris 6,677 · Trump 5,592
12,671Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Neal Ganser1,443 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Kelly Kortum1,445 votes · 51.41% of party candidate votes
Republican · Neal GanserDemocratic · Kelly Kortum
2024 baseline sensitivity
Competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 33VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline D+13.1D+13.1Off-cycle
State Senate District 334-year term
D+13.1Harris 7,603 · Trump 5,784
HD 65 + HD 66Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch
Senate District 34CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDCarl Anderson (D) · Caleb Hinkle (R)2024 presidential baseline R+34.2 · Safe baselineR+34.2Safe baseline
State Senate District 34Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+34.2Harris 3,808 · Trump 7,984
12,194Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Carl Anderson1,332 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Caleb Hinkle2,554 votes · 73.84% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Carl AndersonRepublican · Caleb Hinkle
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 35VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+44.1R+44.1Off-cycle
State Senate District 354-year term
R+44.1Harris 3,843 · Trump 10,255
HD 69 + HD 70Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline
Senate District 36VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline D+6.1D+6.1Off-cycle
State Senate District 364-year term
D+6.1Harris 5,542 · Trump 4,881
HD 71 + HD 72Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive
Senate District 37VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline D+8.4D+8.4Off-cycle
State Senate District 374-year term
D+8.4Harris 5,808 · Trump 4,876
HD 73 + HD 74Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Competitive
Senate District 38VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+41.1R+41.1Off-cycle
State Senate District 384-year term
R+41.1Harris 3,985 · Trump 9,843
HD 75 + HD 76Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline
Senate District 39VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+55.5R+55.5Off-cycle
State Senate District 394-year term
R+55.5Harris 2,826 · Trump 10,371
HD 77 + HD 78Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline
Senate District 40VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline D+2.7D+2.7Off-cycle
State Senate District 404-year term
D+2.7Harris 6,227 · Trump 5,893
HD 79 + HD 80Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline
Senate District 41CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDErin Farris-Olsen (D) · Dru Koester (L)2024 presidential baseline D+6.5 · Highly competitiveD+6.5Highly competitive
State Senate District 41Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
D+6.5Harris 6,212 · Trump 5,425
12,111Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Erin Farris-Olsen2,597 votes · 69.74% of party candidate votes
Dru Koester87 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Erin Farris-OlsenLibertarian · Dru Koester
2024 baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 42CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMary Ann Dunwell (D) · Stephen LaPraim (R)2024 presidential baseline R+13.1 · Lean / watchR+13.1Lean / watch
State Senate District 42Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+13.1Harris 5,769 · Trump 7,565
13,760Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Mary Ann Dunwell3,032 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Stephen LaPraim1,481 votes · 40.26% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Mary Ann DunwellRepublican · Stephen LaPraim
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 43CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDDavid Bedey (R) · Stephen Leuchtman (D)2024 presidential baseline R+38.9 · Safe baselineR+38.9Safe baseline
State Senate District 43Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
R+38.9Harris 4,311 · Trump 10,039
14,734Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
David Bedey3,176 votes · 50.48% of party candidate votes
Stephen Leuchtman1,506 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Republican · David BedeyDemocratic · Stephen Leuchtman
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 44VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+42.2R+42.2Off-cycle
State Senate District 444-year term
R+42.2Harris 4,174 · Trump 10,578
HD 87 + HD 88Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline
Senate District 45VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline R+18.8R+18.8Off-cycle
State Senate District 454-year term
R+18.8Harris 5,242 · Trump 7,765
HD 89 + HD 90Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch
Senate District 46VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline D+11.8D+11.8Off-cycle
State Senate District 464-year term
D+11.8Harris 7,022 · Trump 5,489
HD 91 + HD 92Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Competitive
Senate District 47VERIFIED · OFF-CYCLE 2026No regular 2026 Senate election2024 presidential baseline D+22.0D+22.0Off-cycle
State Senate District 474-year term
D+22.0Harris 8,226 · Trump 5,165
HD 93 + HD 94Official paired geography
Off-cycleNo candidate field fabricated
Baseline sensitivity
Likely
Senate District 48CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDAndrea Olsen (D)2024 presidential baseline D+40.5 · Safe baselineD+40.5Safe baseline
State Senate District 48Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
D+40.5Harris 8,937 · Trump 3,642
13,066Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Andrea Olsen4,393 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Andrea Olsen
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 49CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDWillis Curdy (D) · Brad Tschida (R)2024 presidential baseline D+17.1 · Lean / watchD+17.1Lean / watch
State Senate District 49Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
D+17.1Harris 7,364 · Trump 5,142
12,991Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Willis Curdy3,443 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Brad Tschida1,583 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Willis CurdyRepublican · Brad Tschida
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

Senate District 50CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDShane A Morigeau (D)2024 presidential baseline D+31.0 · Safe baselineD+31.0Safe baseline
State Senate District 50Scheduled 2026 Senate seat
D+31.0Harris 8,202 · Trump 4,205
12,874Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Shane A Morigeau3,814 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Shane A Morigeau
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

08 · STATE HOUSE

100/100 numbered districts · all on the 2026 ballot

House District 1CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDDakota V Adams (D) · Michelle Bianco (R)2024 presidential baseline R+54.3 · Safe baselineR+54.3Safe baseline
State House District 1All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+54.3Harris 1,539 · Trump 5,383
7,085Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Dakota V Adams501 votes · 62.24% of party candidate votes
Michelle Bianco2,397 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Dakota V AdamsRepublican · Michelle Bianco
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 2CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJane Maahs (D) · Tom Millett (R)2024 presidential baseline R+55.6 · Safe baselineR+55.6Safe baseline
State House District 2All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+55.6Harris 1,283 · Trump 4,646
6,051Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jane Maahs577 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Tom Millett2,222 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Jane MaahsRepublican · Tom Millett
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 3CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDDebo Powers (D) · Derek Peachey (R)2024 presidential baseline D+3.0 · Toss-up baselineD+3.0Toss-up baseline
State House District 3All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+3.0Harris 3,557 · Trump 3,345
7,108Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Debo Powers1,548 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Derek Peachey836 votes · 54.08% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Debo PowersRepublican · Derek Peachey
2024 baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 4CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDPaula Koch (D) · Shaun Pandina (R)2024 presidential baseline R+6.9 · Highly competitiveR+6.9Highly competitive
State House District 4All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+6.9Harris 2,831 · Trump 3,264
6,295Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Paula Koch1,097 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Shaun Pandina887 votes · 64.79% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Paula KochRepublican · Shaun Pandina
2024 baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 5CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDLuca Welle (D) · Braxton Mitchell (R)2024 presidential baseline R+46.3 · Safe baselineR+46.3Safe baseline
State House District 5All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+46.3Harris 1,664 · Trump 4,683
6,519Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Luca Welle654 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Braxton Mitchell1,952 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Luca WelleRepublican · Braxton Mitchell
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 6CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDDarren Fix (D) · Jim Riley (R)2024 presidential baseline R+33.9 · Safe baselineR+33.9Safe baseline
State House District 6All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+33.9Harris 2,436 · Trump 5,049
7,699Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Darren Fix934 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Jim Riley1,576 votes · 67.15% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Darren FixRepublican · Jim Riley
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 7CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMadison Evans (D) · Courtenay Sprunger (R)2024 presidential baseline R+16.9 · Lean / watchR+16.9Lean / watch
State House District 7All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+16.9Harris 1,947 · Trump 2,774
4,892Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Madison Evans795 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Courtenay Sprunger826 votes · 64.03% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Madison EvansRepublican · Courtenay Sprunger
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 8CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDCalvin Lime (D) · Lukas Schubert (R)2024 presidential baseline R+45.0 · Safe baselineR+45.0Safe baseline
State House District 8All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+45.0Harris 1,529 · Trump 4,157
5,844Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Calvin Lime664 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Lukas Schubert1,879 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Calvin LimeRepublican · Lukas Schubert
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 9CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDKate McLaughlin (D) · Steven Kelly (R)2024 presidential baseline R+44.8 · Safe baselineR+44.8Safe baseline
State House District 9All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+44.8Harris 1,780 · Trump 4,800
6,747Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Kate McLaughlin732 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Steven Kelly1,938 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Kate McLaughlinRepublican · Steven Kelly
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 10CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDCatherine Allen (D) · Terry Falk (R)2024 presidential baseline R+48.2 · Safe baselineR+48.2Safe baseline
State House District 10All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+48.2Harris 1,479 · Trump 4,376
6,012Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Catherine Allen552 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Terry Falk1,734 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Catherine AllenRepublican · Terry Falk
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 11CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMaeve Kintzler (D) · Ed Byrne (R)2024 presidential baseline R+50.9 · Safe baselineR+50.9Safe baseline
State House District 11All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+50.9Harris 1,667 · Trump 5,268
7,077Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Maeve Kintzler680 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Ed Byrne2,406 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Maeve KintzlerRepublican · Ed Byrne
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 12CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDCindy Bruckner (D) · Tracy Sharp (R)2024 presidential baseline R+35.3 · Safe baselineR+35.3Safe baseline
State House District 12All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+35.3Harris 2,359 · Trump 5,017
7,537Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Cindy Bruckner1,066 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Tracy Sharp2,130 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Cindy BrucknerRepublican · Tracy Sharp
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 13CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDDalton Bradford (D) · Finley Warden (R)2024 presidential baseline R+22.3 · LikelyR+22.3Likely
State House District 13All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+22.3Harris 2,271 · Trump 3,629
6,087Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Dalton Bradford910 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Finley Warden1,611 votes · 64.62% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Dalton BradfordRepublican · Finley Warden
2024 baseline sensitivity
Likely

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 14CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDColleen Hinds (D) · Paul Fielder (R)2024 presidential baseline R+56.2 · Safe baselineR+56.2Safe baseline
State House District 14All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+56.2Harris 1,468 · Trump 5,473
7,129Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Colleen Hinds809 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Paul Fielder2,407 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Colleen HindsRepublican · Paul Fielder
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 15CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDThedis Crowe (D) · Ralph Foster (R)2024 presidential baseline D+6.8 · Highly competitiveD+6.8Highly competitive
State House District 15All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+6.8Harris 2,155 · Trump 1,871
4,188Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Thedis Crowe568 votes · 62.62% of party candidate votes
Ralph Foster604 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Thedis CroweRepublican · Ralph Foster
2024 baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 16CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDLona Running Wolf (D)2024 presidential baseline D+11.4 · CompetitiveD+11.4Competitive
State House District 16All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+11.4Harris 2,278 · Trump 1,794
4,231Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Lona Running Wolf1,112 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Lona Running Wolf
2024 baseline sensitivity
Competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 17CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDChris Bechtold (D) · Justin Cleveland (R)2024 presidential baseline R+44.4 · Safe baselineR+44.4Safe baseline
State House District 17All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+44.4Harris 1,741 · Trump 4,696
6,656Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Chris Bechtold631 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Justin Cleveland1,787 votes · 57.57% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Chris BechtoldRepublican · Justin Cleveland
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 18CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDBruce Gillespie (R)2024 presidential baseline R+51.6 · Safe baselineR+51.6Safe baseline
State House District 18All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+51.6Harris 1,254 · Trump 4,111
5,542Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Bruce Gillespie2,769 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Republican · Bruce Gillespie
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 19CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJane Weber (D) · Hannah Trebas (R)2024 presidential baseline R+0.6 · Toss-up baselineR+0.6Toss-up baseline
State House District 19All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+0.6Harris 1,595 · Trump 1,616
3,346Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jane Weber743 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Hannah Trebas455 votes · 64.72% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Jane WeberRepublican · Hannah Trebas
2024 baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 20CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDSteve Keller (D) · Melissa Nikolakakos (R)2024 presidential baseline R+8.9 · CompetitiveR+8.9Competitive
State House District 20All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+8.9Harris 2,230 · Trump 2,683
5,093Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Steve Keller1,071 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Melissa Nikolakakos842 votes · 58.03% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Steve KellerRepublican · Melissa Nikolakakos
2024 baseline sensitivity
Competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 21CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDLela Graham (D) · Trevor Funseth (R)2024 presidential baseline R+21.0 · LikelyR+21.0Likely
State House District 21All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+21.0Harris 2,111 · Trump 3,280
5,559Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Lela Graham917 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Trevor Funseth1,155 votes · 59.69% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Lela GrahamRepublican · Trevor Funseth
2024 baseline sensitivity
Likely

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 22CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDNeal Miller (D) · Jason Lorang (R)2024 presidential baseline R+18.1 · Lean / watchR+18.1Lean / watch
State House District 22All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+18.1Harris 1,332 · Trump 1,944
3,375Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Neal Miller587 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Jason Lorang640 votes · 68.30% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Neal MillerRepublican · Jason Lorang
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 23CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDRebecca Bogden-Richards (D) · Eric Tilleman (R)2024 presidential baseline R+10.7 · CompetitiveR+10.7Competitive
State House District 23All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+10.7Harris 1,982 · Trump 2,470
4,576Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Rebecca Bogden-Richards932 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Eric Tilleman841 votes · 64.40% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Rebecca Bogden-RichardsRepublican · Eric Tilleman
2024 baseline sensitivity
Competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 24CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDPam Carroll (D) · Steve Fitzpatrick (R)2024 presidential baseline R+19.6 · Lean / watchR+19.6Lean / watch
State House District 24All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+19.6Harris 2,025 · Trump 3,049
5,222Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Pam Carroll919 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Steve Fitzpatrick1,443 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Pam CarrollRepublican · Steve Fitzpatrick
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 25CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJerry Ferderer (D) · Steve Gist (R)2024 presidential baseline R+46.2 · Safe baselineR+46.2Safe baseline
State House District 25All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+46.2Harris 1,438 · Trump 4,056
5,666Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jerry Ferderer649 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Steve Gist1,762 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Jerry FerdererRepublican · Steve Gist
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 26CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDPaul Jefferson (D) · Russ Miner (R)2024 presidential baseline R+40.6 · Safe baselineR+40.6Safe baseline
State House District 26All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+40.6Harris 1,800 · Trump 4,382
6,367Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Paul Jefferson754 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Russ Miner2,423 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Paul JeffersonRepublican · Russ Miner
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 27CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDPaul Tuss (D) · Jordan Ophus (L)2024 presidential baseline R+20.1 · LikelyR+20.1Likely
State House District 27All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+20.1Harris 1,696 · Trump 2,598
4,491Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Paul Tuss1,035 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Jordan Ophus24 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Paul TussLibertarian · Jordan Ophus
2024 baseline sensitivity
Likely

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 28CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDChisholm Christensen (R)2024 presidential baseline R+55.6 · Safe baselineR+55.6Safe baseline
State House District 28All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+55.6Harris 1,136 · Trump 4,195
5,499Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Chisholm Christensen2,029 votes · 72.28% of party candidate votes
Republican · Chisholm Christensen
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 29CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDTess Fahlgren (D) · Valerie Moore (R)2024 presidential baseline R+51.3 · Safe baselineR+51.3Safe baseline
State House District 29All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+51.3Harris 1,313 · Trump 4,278
5,781Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Tess Fahlgren197 votes · 53.10% of party candidate votes
Valerie Moore1,745 votes · 61.75% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Tess FahlgrenRepublican · Valerie Moore
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 30CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJason Boeshore (D) · Morgan Thiel (R)2024 presidential baseline R+66.3 · Safe baselineR+66.3Safe baseline
State House District 30All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+66.3Harris 799 · Trump 4,207
5,144Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jason Boeshore215 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Morgan Thiel1,961 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Jason BoeshoreRepublican · Morgan Thiel
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 31CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDNatalie Weeks-O'Neal (D)2024 presidential baseline D+7.7 · CompetitiveD+7.7Competitive
State House District 31All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+7.7Harris 2,102 · Trump 1,788
4,098Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Natalie Weeks-O'NealDemocratic · primary-name join not assigned without exact match
Democratic · Natalie Weeks-O'Neal
2024 baseline sensitivity
Competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 32CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMike Fox (D)2024 presidential baseline D+1.0 · Toss-up baselineD+1.0Toss-up baseline
State House District 32All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+1.0Harris 1,676 · Trump 1,642
3,464Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Mike Fox608 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Mike Fox
2024 baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 33CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDTristan Veverka (D) · Brandon Ler (R)2024 presidential baseline R+61.2 · Safe baselineR+61.2Safe baseline
State House District 33All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+61.2Harris 1,008 · Trump 4,417
5,573Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Tristan Veverka330 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Brandon Ler1,678 votes · 56.46% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Tristan VeverkaRepublican · Brandon Ler
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 34CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJasmine Erickson (D) · Jerry Schillinger (R)2024 presidential baseline R+74.9 · Safe baselineR+74.9Safe baseline
State House District 34All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+74.9Harris 734 · Trump 5,521
6,392Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jasmine Erickson191 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Jerry Schillinger2,957 votes · 85.81% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Jasmine EricksonRepublican · Jerry Schillinger
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 35CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDNatalie Parker (D) · Gary Parry (R)2024 presidential baseline R+65.1 · Safe baselineR+65.1Safe baseline
State House District 35All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+65.1Harris 993 · Trump 4,993
6,141Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Natalie Parker391 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Gary Parry2,457 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Natalie ParkerRepublican · Gary Parry
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 36CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDBenjamin Keyes (D) · Ty Linger (R)2024 presidential baseline R+44.5 · Safe baselineR+44.5Safe baseline
State House District 36All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+44.5Harris 1,342 · Trump 3,653
5,188Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Benjamin Keyes542 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Ty Linger1,602 votes · 81.69% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Benjamin KeyesRepublican · Ty Linger
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 37CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDTracey Miller Karcher (D) · Shane Klakken (R) · Jason Wilson (Independent)2024 presidential baseline R+51.6 · Safe baselineR+51.6Safe baseline
State House District 37All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+51.6Harris 1,460 · Trump 4,798
6,466Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Tracey Miller Karcher599 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Shane Klakken2,699 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Jason WilsonIndependent · no partisan primary
Democratic · Tracey Miller KarcherRepublican · Shane KlakkenIndependent · Jason Wilson
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 38CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDGreg Oblander (R)2024 presidential baseline R+67.2 · Safe baselineR+67.2Safe baseline
State House District 38All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+67.2Harris 1,040 · Trump 5,580
6,756Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Greg Oblander2,676 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Republican · Greg Oblander
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 39CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMelissa Smith (D) · Kerri Seekins-Crowe (R)2024 presidential baseline R+33.9 · Safe baselineR+33.9Safe baseline
State House District 39All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+33.9Harris 1,565 · Trump 3,249
4,971Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Melissa Smith674 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Kerri Seekins-Crowe1,195 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Melissa SmithRepublican · Kerri Seekins-Crowe
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 40CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDGabriel Bradshaw (D) · Mike Vinton (R)2024 presidential baseline R+47.9 · Safe baselineR+47.9Safe baseline
State House District 40All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+47.9Harris 1,252 · Trump 3,704
5,121Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Gabriel Bradshaw494 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Mike Vinton1,021 votes · 67.80% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Gabriel BradshawRepublican · Mike Vinton
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 41CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJade Sooktis (D)2024 presidential baseline D+4.8 · Highly competitiveD+4.8Highly competitive
State House District 41All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+4.8Harris 1,525 · Trump 1,380
3,035Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jade Sooktis548 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Jade Sooktis
2024 baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 42CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDSidney Fitzpatrick (D) · Jeremiah Jabs (R)2024 presidential baseline R+7.7 · CompetitiveR+7.7Competitive
State House District 42All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+7.7Harris 1,675 · Trump 1,967
3,773Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Sidney Fitzpatrick729 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Jeremiah Jabs627 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Sidney FitzpatrickRepublican · Jeremiah Jabs
2024 baseline sensitivity
Competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 43CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDRudolf Haden (D) · Larry Brewster (R)2024 presidential baseline R+23.6 · LikelyR+23.6Likely
State House District 43All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+23.6Harris 1,738 · Trump 2,871
4,810Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Rudolf Haden738 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Larry Brewster1,138 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Rudolf HadenRepublican · Larry Brewster
2024 baseline sensitivity
Likely

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 44CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMike Eaton (D) · Katie Zolnikov (R)2024 presidential baseline R+36.2 · Safe baselineR+36.2Safe baseline
State House District 44All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+36.2Harris 1,758 · Trump 3,843
5,756Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Mike Eaton705 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Katie Zolnikov1,434 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Mike EatonRepublican · Katie Zolnikov
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 45CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDDenise Baum (D) · Bryce Walston (R)2024 presidential baseline D+3.9 · Highly competitiveD+3.9Highly competitive
State House District 45All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+3.9Harris 2,541 · Trump 2,342
5,042Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Denise Baum1,073 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Bryce Walston947 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Denise BaumRepublican · Bryce Walston
2024 baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 46CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDDenise Joy (D) · Kimberly Welzenbach (R)2024 presidential baseline R+1.8 · Toss-up baselineR+1.8Toss-up baseline
State House District 46All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+1.8Harris 2,329 · Trump 2,419
4,916Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Denise Joy677 votes · 60.07% of party candidate votes
Kimberly Welzenbach819 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Denise JoyRepublican · Kimberly Welzenbach
2024 baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 47CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJames Reavis (D) · John Maxwell (R)2024 presidential baseline D+6.3 · Highly competitiveD+6.3Highly competitive
State House District 47All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+6.3Harris 1,822 · Trump 1,599
3,565Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
James Reavis617 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
John Maxwell284 votes · 58.92% of party candidate votes
Democratic · James ReavisRepublican · John Maxwell
2024 baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 48CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDTucker Colvin (D) · Curtis Schomer (R)2024 presidential baseline R+14.3 · Lean / watchR+14.3Lean / watch
State House District 48All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+14.3Harris 1,910 · Trump 2,577
4,659Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Tucker Colvin795 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Curtis Schomer801 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Tucker ColvinRepublican · Curtis Schomer
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 49CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDRebecca Noell (D) · Charlie Loveridge (R)2024 presidential baseline R+18.2 · Lean / watchR+18.2Lean / watch
State House District 49All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+18.2Harris 1,994 · Trump 2,918
5,089Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Rebecca Noell908 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Charlie Loveridge951 votes · 71.77% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Rebecca NoellRepublican · Charlie Loveridge
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 50CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMark Peters (D) · Stewart Harris (R)2024 presidential baseline R+28.8 · LikelyR+28.8Likely
State House District 50All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+28.8Harris 2,186 · Trump 4,034
6,407Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Mark Peters839 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Stewart Harris1,661 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Mark PetersRepublican · Stewart Harris
2024 baseline sensitivity
Likely

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 51CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDPrecious McKenzie (D) · Jodee Etchart (R)2024 presidential baseline R+15.7 · Lean / watchR+15.7Lean / watch
State House District 51All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+15.7Harris 2,298 · Trump 3,186
5,662Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Precious McKenzie906 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Jodee Etchart1,146 votes · 72.39% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Precious McKenzieRepublican · Jodee Etchart
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 52CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDElizabeth Heald (D) · Stacy Zinn (R)2024 presidential baseline R+25.3 · LikelyR+25.3Likely
State House District 52All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+25.3Harris 2,466 · Trump 4,200
6,856Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Elizabeth Heald1,045 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Stacy Zinn1,504 votes · 61.31% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Elizabeth HealdRepublican · Stacy Zinn
2024 baseline sensitivity
Likely

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 53CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMatthew Hankins (D) · Troy Charbonneau (R)2024 presidential baseline R+47.6 · Safe baselineR+47.6Safe baseline
State House District 53All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+47.6Harris 1,655 · Trump 4,819
6,651Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Matthew Hankins621 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Troy Charbonneau1,145 votes · 56.66% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Matthew HankinsRepublican · Troy Charbonneau
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 54CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJanine Coole (D) · Lee Deming (R)2024 presidential baseline R+41.8 · Safe baselineR+41.8Safe baseline
State House District 54All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+41.8Harris 1,411 · Trump 3,546
5,113Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Janine Coole598 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Lee Deming1,318 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Janine CooleRepublican · Lee Deming
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 55CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDRichard Gessling (D) · Brad Barker (R)2024 presidential baseline R+32.4 · Safe baselineR+32.4Safe baseline
State House District 55All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+32.4Harris 2,353 · Trump 4,719
7,297Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Richard Gessling832 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Brad Barker1,944 votes · 63.61% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Richard GesslingRepublican · Brad Barker
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 56CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDFiona Nave (R)2024 presidential baseline R+61.0 · Safe baselineR+61.0Safe baseline
State House District 56All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+61.0Harris 1,300 · Trump 5,648
7,132Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Fiona Nave2,553 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Republican · Fiona Nave
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 57CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDBob Crank (R)2024 presidential baseline D+0.8 · Toss-up baselineD+0.8Toss-up baseline
State House District 57All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+0.8Harris 3,824 · Trump 3,760
7,804Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Bob Crank1,426 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Republican · Bob Crank
2024 baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 58CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJamie Isaly (D) · Joshua Congleton (R)2024 presidential baseline D+3.8 · Highly competitiveD+3.8Highly competitive
State House District 58All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+3.8Harris 3,509 · Trump 3,243
6,991Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jamie Isaly1,598 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Joshua Congleton967 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Jamie IsalyRepublican · Joshua Congleton
2024 baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 59CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDKatie Fire Thunder (D) · Marc Greendorfer (R)2024 presidential baseline D+24.3 · LikelyD+24.3Likely
State House District 59All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+24.3Harris 4,863 · Trump 2,916
8,011Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Katie Fire Thunder2,135 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Marc Greendorfer1,076 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Katie Fire ThunderRepublican · Marc Greendorfer
2024 baseline sensitivity
Likely

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 60CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDAlanah Griffith (D) · Greg Leman (R)2024 presidential baseline D+1.6 · Toss-up baselineD+1.6Toss-up baseline
State House District 60All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+1.6Harris 3,254 · Trump 3,147
6,597Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Alanah Griffith1,262 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Greg Leman1,087 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Alanah GriffithRepublican · Greg Leman
2024 baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 61CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDRio Roland (D) · Eric Jacobs (R)2024 presidential baseline D+40.0 · Safe baselineD+40.0Safe baseline
State House District 61All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+40.0Harris 2,840 · Trump 1,175
4,159Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Rio Roland551 votes · 62.54% of party candidate votes
Eric Jacobs117 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Rio RolandRepublican · Eric Jacobs
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 62CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJosh Seckinger (D) · Esther Fishbaugh (R)2024 presidential baseline D+2.8 · Toss-up baselineD+2.8Toss-up baseline
State House District 62All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+2.8Harris 3,010 · Trump 2,837
6,080Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Josh Seckinger1,099 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Esther Fishbaugh798 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Josh SeckingerRepublican · Esther Fishbaugh
2024 baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 63CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDPeter Strand (D) · Lawrence Moore (R)2024 presidential baseline D+7.9 · CompetitiveD+7.9Competitive
State House District 63All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+7.9Harris 3,348 · Trump 2,844
6,388Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Peter Strand1,260 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Lawrence Moore673 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Peter StrandRepublican · Lawrence Moore
2024 baseline sensitivity
Competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 64CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDBrady Bremer (D) · Daniel Martinez (R)2024 presidential baseline D+9.2 · CompetitiveD+9.2Competitive
State House District 64All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+9.2Harris 3,329 · Trump 2,748
6,283Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Brady Bremer1,226 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Daniel Martinez724 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Brady BremerRepublican · Daniel Martinez
2024 baseline sensitivity
Competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 65CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDBrian Close (D) · Joe Flynn (R)2024 presidential baseline D+11.3 · CompetitiveD+11.3Competitive
State House District 65All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+11.3Harris 3,515 · Trump 2,775
6,527Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Brian Close1,435 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Joe Flynn959 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Brian CloseRepublican · Joe Flynn
2024 baseline sensitivity
Competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 66CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDEric Matthews (D) · Owen Lang (R)2024 presidential baseline D+14.7 · Lean / watchD+14.7Lean / watch
State House District 66All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+14.7Harris 4,088 · Trump 3,009
7,321Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Eric Matthews1,835 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Owen Lang1,079 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Eric MatthewsRepublican · Owen Lang
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 67CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDLogan Henke (D) · Jedediah Hinkle (R)2024 presidential baseline R+26.2 · LikelyR+26.2Likely
State House District 67All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+26.2Harris 2,164 · Trump 3,787
6,185Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Logan Henke727 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Jedediah Hinkle1,089 votes · 70.81% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Logan HenkeRepublican · Jedediah Hinkle
2024 baseline sensitivity
Likely

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 68CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJocelyn Kent (D) · Randy Chamberlin (R)2024 presidential baseline R+42.5 · Safe baselineR+42.5Safe baseline
State House District 68All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+42.5Harris 1,644 · Trump 4,197
6,009Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jocelyn Kent596 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Randy Chamberlin1,119 votes · 59.11% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Jocelyn KentRepublican · Randy Chamberlin
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 69CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDTrevor Walter (R)2024 presidential baseline R+46.5 · Safe baselineR+46.5Safe baseline
State House District 69All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+46.5Harris 1,976 · Trump 5,597
7,780Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Trevor Walter1,658 votes · 53.11% of party candidate votes
Republican · Trevor Walter
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 70CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDKobi Craddock (D) · Shannon Maness (R)2024 presidential baseline R+41.3 · Safe baselineR+41.3Safe baseline
State House District 70All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+41.3Harris 1,867 · Trump 4,658
6,750Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Kobi Craddock665 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Shannon Maness2,144 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Kobi CraddockRepublican · Shannon Maness
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 71CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDScott DeMarois (D) · Suzzann Nordwick (R)2024 presidential baseline R+0.0 · Toss-up baselineR+0.0Toss-up baseline
State House District 71All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+0.0Harris 2,714 · Trump 2,715
5,624Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Scott DeMarois1,651 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Suzzann Nordwick851 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Scott DeMaroisRepublican · Suzzann Nordwick
2024 baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 72CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDDonavon Hawk (D) · Michael Saul (R)2024 presidential baseline D+12.7 · Lean / watchD+12.7Lean / watch
State House District 72All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+12.7Harris 2,828 · Trump 2,166
5,217Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Donavon Hawk1,587 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Michael Saul583 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Donavon HawkRepublican · Michael Saul
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 73CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJennifer Lynch (D) · Gerry Kennedy (R)2024 presidential baseline D+6.9 · Highly competitiveD+6.9Highly competitive
State House District 73All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+6.9Harris 2,434 · Trump 2,105
4,740Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jennifer Lynch1,315 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Gerry Kennedy493 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Jennifer LynchRepublican · Gerry Kennedy
2024 baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 74CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMarc Lee (D) · Trenin Bayless (R)2024 presidential baseline D+9.4 · CompetitiveD+9.4Competitive
State House District 74All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+9.4Harris 3,374 · Trump 2,771
6,384Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Marc Lee1,941 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Trenin Bayless912 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Marc LeeRepublican · Trenin Bayless
2024 baseline sensitivity
Competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 75CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDPatrick Sullivan (D) · Mark Reinschmidt (R) · Greg DeVries (L)2024 presidential baseline R+36.9 · Safe baselineR+36.9Safe baseline
State House District 75All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+36.9Harris 2,236 · Trump 4,968
7,412Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Patrick Sullivan1,080 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Mark Reinschmidt1,881 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Greg DeVries103 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Patrick SullivanRepublican · Mark ReinschmidtLibertarian · Greg DeVries
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 76CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDTrish Schreiber (R) · Shayne Morgan (Independent)2024 presidential baseline R+45.8 · Safe baselineR+45.8Safe baseline
State House District 76All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+45.8Harris 1,749 · Trump 4,875
6,827Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Trish Schreiber1,818 votes · 60.50% of party candidate votes
Shayne MorganIndependent · no partisan primary
Republican · Trish SchreiberIndependent · Shayne Morgan
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 77CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJane Gillette (R)2024 presidential baseline R+56.2 · Safe baselineR+56.2Safe baseline
State House District 77All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+56.2Harris 1,467 · Trump 5,510
7,195Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jane Gillette2,047 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Republican · Jane Gillette
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 78CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMark White (D) · Randyn Gregg (R)2024 presidential baseline R+54.7 · Safe baselineR+54.7Safe baseline
State House District 78All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+54.7Harris 1,359 · Trump 4,861
6,402Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Mark White581 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Randyn Gregg2,352 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Mark WhiteRepublican · Randyn Gregg
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 79CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDLuke Muszkiewicz (D) · Chiko Olson (R)2024 presidential baseline D+4.9 · Highly competitiveD+4.9Highly competitive
State House District 79All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+4.9Harris 3,552 · Trump 3,210
6,981Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Luke Muszkiewicz1,972 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Chiko Olson1,164 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Luke MuszkiewiczRepublican · Chiko Olson
2024 baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 80CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMegan Lane (D) · Katie Fruits (R)2024 presidential baseline R+0.1 · Toss-up baselineR+0.1Toss-up baseline
State House District 80All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+0.1Harris 2,675 · Trump 2,683
5,572Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Megan Lane903 votes · 61.64% of party candidate votes
Katie Fruits970 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Megan LaneRepublican · Katie Fruits
2024 baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 81CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJanet Ellis (D) · John Looney Sr. (R)2024 presidential baseline D+6.7 · Highly competitiveD+6.7Highly competitive
State House District 81All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+6.7Harris 3,336 · Trump 2,902
6,469Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Janet Ellis1,250 votes · 63.55% of party candidate votes
John Looney Sr.Republican · primary-name join not assigned without exact match
Democratic · Janet EllisRepublican · John Looney Sr.
2024 baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 82CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDPete Elverum (D) · Clinton McKay (R)2024 presidential baseline D+6.3 · Highly competitiveD+6.3Highly competitive
State House District 82All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+6.3Harris 2,876 · Trump 2,523
5,642Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Pete Elverum1,573 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Clinton McKay881 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Pete ElverumRepublican · Clinton McKay
2024 baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 83CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJoe Cohenour (D) · Aaron Leas (R)2024 presidential baseline D+8.7 · CompetitiveD+8.7Competitive
State House District 83All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+8.7Harris 3,436 · Trump 2,866
6,517Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Joe Cohenour1,809 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Aaron Leas1,103 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Joe CohenourRepublican · Aaron Leas
2024 baseline sensitivity
Competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 84CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDTia Nelson (D) · Roy Caldwell (R)2024 presidential baseline R+32.7 · Safe baselineR+32.7Safe baseline
State House District 84All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+32.7Harris 2,333 · Trump 4,699
7,243Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Tia Nelson598 votes · 51.95% of party candidate votes
Roy Caldwell1,385 votes · 61.97% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Tia NelsonRepublican · Roy Caldwell
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 85CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDLaura Jackson (D) · Kim Dailey (R)2024 presidential baseline R+51.3 · Safe baselineR+51.3Safe baseline
State House District 85All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+51.3Harris 1,794 · Trump 5,761
7,733Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Laura Jackson689 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Kim Dailey1,892 votes · 56.99% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Laura JacksonRepublican · Kim Dailey
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 86CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDArchie Thomas (D) · Wayne Rusk (R)2024 presidential baseline R+25.2 · LikelyR+25.2Likely
State House District 86All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+25.2Harris 2,517 · Trump 4,278
7,001Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Archie Thomas881 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Wayne Rusk1,647 votes · 61.20% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Archie ThomasRepublican · Wayne Rusk
2024 baseline sensitivity
Likely

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 87CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDBill Jones (D) · Terry Nelson (R)2024 presidential baseline R+47.6 · Safe baselineR+47.6Safe baseline
State House District 87All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+47.6Harris 1,895 · Trump 5,531
7,636Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Bill Jones805 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Terry Nelson2,136 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Bill JonesRepublican · Terry Nelson
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 88CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDEvan Schroedel (D) · Greg Overstreet (R)2024 presidential baseline R+36.7 · Safe baselineR+36.7Safe baseline
State House District 88All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+36.7Harris 2,279 · Trump 5,047
7,534Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Evan Schroedel1,052 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Greg Overstreet2,057 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Evan SchroedelRepublican · Greg Overstreet
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 89CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMark Thane (D) · Lyn Hellegaard (R)2024 presidential baseline D+5.4 · Highly competitiveD+5.4Highly competitive
State House District 89All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+5.4Harris 3,362 · Trump 3,003
6,602Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Mark Thane1,691 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Lyn Hellegaard1,040 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Mark ThaneRepublican · Lyn Hellegaard
2024 baseline sensitivity
Highly competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 90CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJeff Stanek (R) · Kelley Durbin-Williams (Independent)2024 presidential baseline R+42.2 · Safe baselineR+42.2Safe baseline
State House District 90All House seats on 2026 ballot
R+42.2Harris 1,880 · Trump 4,762
6,826Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jeff Stanek1,704 votes · 61.96% of party candidate votes
Kelley Durbin-WilliamsIndependent · no partisan primary
Republican · Jeff StanekIndependent · Kelley Durbin-Williams
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 91CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDShelly Fyant (D) · Charles Headley (R)2024 presidential baseline D+3.0 · Toss-up baselineD+3.0Toss-up baseline
State House District 91All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+3.0Harris 3,037 · Trump 2,855
6,110Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Shelly Fyant1,497 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Charles Headley985 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Shelly FyantRepublican · Charles Headley
2024 baseline sensitivity
Toss-up baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 92CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMonica Tranel (D)2024 presidential baseline D+19.8 · Lean / watchD+19.8Lean / watch
State House District 92All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+19.8Harris 3,985 · Trump 2,634
6,835Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Monica Tranel1,461 votes · 60.82% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Monica Tranel
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 93CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDBen Davis (D) · Roy Handley (R)2024 presidential baseline D+24.4 · LikelyD+24.4Likely
State House District 93All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+24.4Harris 4,054 · Trump 2,419
6,714Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Ben Davis1,029 votes · 41.24% of party candidate votes
Roy Handley873 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Ben DavisRepublican · Roy Handley
2024 baseline sensitivity
Likely

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 94CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDRobin Kendall (D) · Greg Woodward (R)2024 presidential baseline D+19.9 · Lean / watchD+19.9Lean / watch
State House District 94All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+19.9Harris 4,172 · Trump 2,746
7,180Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Robin Kendall1,173 votes · 50.47% of party candidate votes
Greg Woodward1,037 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Robin KendallRepublican · Greg Woodward
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 95CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDZooey Zephyr (D)2024 presidential baseline D+62.2 · Safe baselineD+62.2Safe baseline
State House District 95All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+62.2Harris 5,364 · Trump 1,152
6,774Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Zooey Zephyr2,665 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Zooey Zephyr
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 96CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDBob Carter (D)2024 presidential baseline D+17.2 · Lean / watchD+17.2Lean / watch
State House District 96All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+17.2Harris 3,573 · Trump 2,490
6,292Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Bob Carter1,804 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Bob Carter
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 97CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDMelody Cunningham (D) · Michael Hagestad (R)2024 presidential baseline D+20.5 · LikelyD+20.5Likely
State House District 97All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+20.5Harris 3,657 · Trump 2,373
6,273Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Melody Cunningham1,800 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Michael Hagestad790 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Melody CunninghamRepublican · Michael Hagestad
2024 baseline sensitivity
Likely

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 98CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDJonathan Karlen (D) · Bryan Muzzana (R)2024 presidential baseline D+14.0 · Lean / watchD+14.0Lean / watch
State House District 98All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+14.0Harris 3,707 · Trump 2,769
6,718Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Jonathan Karlen1,623 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Bryan Muzzana713 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Jonathan KarlenRepublican · Bryan Muzzana
2024 baseline sensitivity
Lean / watch

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 99CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDTom France (D) · Ryan Darling (R)2024 presidential baseline D+11.3 · CompetitiveD+11.3Competitive
State House District 99All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+11.3Harris 3,732 · Trump 2,954
6,902Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
Tom France1,737 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Ryan Darling820 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · Tom FranceRepublican · Ryan Darling
2024 baseline sensitivity
Competitive

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

House District 100CANDIDATE + DISTRICT VERIFIED · CURRENT FIELDSJ Howell (D) · Michael Bowles (R) · J.C. Windmueller (L)2024 presidential baseline D+53.9 · Safe baselineD+53.9Safe baseline
State House District 100All House seats on 2026 ballot
D+53.9Harris 4,470 · Trump 1,251
5,972Exact current district geography
Current filed general fieldBallot certification pending Aug. 20
SJ Howell2,070 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Michael Bowles286 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
J.C. Windmueller18 votes · 100.00% of party candidate votes
Democratic · SJ HowellRepublican · Michael BowlesLibertarian · J.C. Windmueller
2024 baseline sensitivity
Safe baseline

SOURCE STATUS · 2026 primary totals: official Montana legislative canvass. Current general field: Montana SOS candidate portal / current cross-check. 2024 baseline: official State Canvass by House District. Current field remains subject to Aug. 20 ballot certification.

09 · JUDICIARY

2026 nonpartisan judicial layer

Supreme Court Justice #4

Nonpartisan · Amy EddyNonpartisan · Dan Wilson

District Court contests: Dist. 1 Dept. 3; Dist. 4 Dept. 5; Dist. 7 Dept. 2; Dist. 8 Dept. 4; Dist. 13 Depts. 4, 5, 9, 10; Dist. 18 Dept. 2; Dist. 20 Depts. 1 and 2 (unexpired); Dist. 21 Dept. 2.

10 · LOCAL / COUNTY

Local geography layer

County

Attach county contests only to affected counties and precincts.

Municipal / special districts

Do not inherit local races from legislative district labels without a verified boundary join.

11 · AGE / TURNOUT

Participation intelligence

Population, voting-age population, registered voters and ballots cast remain distinct denominators. No unsupported youth-cohort percentage is fabricated.
12 · VOTING ARCHITECTURE

Operational controls

Use the Montana SOS election calendar and county election administrators for registration, absentee and local ballot operations. The candidate field remains provisional until Aug. 20 certification.
13 · CASCADE MODEL

Measure transmission, do not assume it

VoteShare[r,d] = Baseline[d] + β₁·StatewideSwing + β₂·Incumbency + β₃·TurnoutShift + β₄·CandidateResidual + RegionEffect + ε
Scientific standard: back-test coefficients and retain uncertainty. Statewide swing is an input, not a district result.
14 · METHODOLOGY

Evidence rules

Official district first

House 1–100 and Senate 1–50 are locked to the 2024–2032 map before candidate joins.

Primary result first

Major-party panels use the official legislative canvass only when the candidate name matches.

Exact baseline

House margins come from the official 2024 State Canvass by HD; Senate margins aggregate the paired House districts.

No invented field

Single-candidate, independent, write-in and off-cycle statuses remain exactly that.

15 · CANDIDATE / DISTRICT AUDIT

Verification status

100/100House districts
50/50Senate profiles
25Active Senate seats
Aug. 20Ballot certification
16 · SOURCES

Primary sources first

Montana Secretary of State — 2026 File for Office / Offices on the Ballot / Candidate Filings.

Montana SOS — 2026 Primary Legislative Canvass and State Primary Canvass.

Montana SOS — 2024 General Election State Canvass by House District and statewide canvass.

Montana Redistricting / SOS — current 2024–2032 legislative district map and pairings.

U.S. Census Bureau — Vintage 2025 Montana population estimate.